Toenemend percentage vrouwen in de geneeskunde: verleden, heden en toekomst

Objective

To describe the development to date of the percentage of female physicians and to predict the situation in 2027, including a calculation of the number of physicians needed.

Design

Retrospective data collection, description and analysis.

Method

Using historical data from Statistics Netherlands and the Dutch certification boards of general practitioners, clinical specialists, and public and occupational health physicians, the percentage of women among medical students, residents and specialists was calculated for the period between 1950 and 2007. For the prediction of the percentage of women among clinical specialists in 2027, model calculations prepared by the Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL) on behalf of the national committee set up to determine current and future specialist training capacity were used, taking into account the effect of part-time jobs.

Results

In 1987 about 20 of all physicians and 15 of all specialists were female. In 2007 this had risen to 40 of all physicians and 34 of all specialists. In 2027 approximately 66 of all physicians and 55 of all specialists will be female. Due to the higher percentage of women 6 more practicing specialists will be needed. This requires an increase of 11 in the number of specialists and physicians in training.

Conclusion

The percentage of women among physicians and medical students indicates that, numerically, medicine is indeed ‘feminising’ and that this process will continue in the coming years. The implications in terms of the number of specialists needed and training capacity are smaller than generally assumed. Other developments, such as an ageing population, will have a greater impact on the demand for physicians.

Ned Tijdschr Geneeskd. 2008;152:2165-71