AIDS-epidemie in Nederland: recente ontwikkelingen naar transmissieroute, leeftijd en nationaliteit

To document the recent developments in the course of the AIDS epidemic in the Netherlands, 1982-1995.

Design

Descriptive.

Setting

National Institute of Public Health and Environment, Bilthoven, Municipal Health Service, Amsterdam, and Inspectorate of Public Health, Rijswijk, the Netherlands.

Method

Based on the new AIDS patients reported to the Inspectorate of Public Health, the incidence figures were calculated by risk group (homobisexual men, intravenous drug users and heterosexual men and women), by birth cohort defined by 5 successive years of birth, and by nationality, in order to characterise subepidemics.

Results

Among homobisexual men AIDS incidence has been stabilizing in recent years. Among intravenous drug users and heterosexuals incidence continues to rise but at a low level compared with homobisexual men. Among homobisexual men and intravenous drug users mean age at AIDS diagnosis is rising in conjunction with reduced incidence among young persons born in 1965-1969 when compared with the incidence among persons born in 1960-1964 when at the same age. By contrast, among heterosexuals a decline in mean age at diagnosis is observed and this decline coincides with undiminished rise of incidence among persons born in 1965-1969. Among heterosexual patients an increasing and disproportionate number have the nationality of a sub-Saharan African country.

Conclusion

Future AIDS incidence among homobisexual men and intravenous drug users will probably be lower than it currently is. Regarding heterosexuals the undiminished growth of the number of young AIDS patients and the increasing proportion of patients from abroad make such an assessment more difficult.